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Only two days prior to the New York race for mayor, Michael Lange issued a bold forecast – going beyond who would win overall, but block by block. Lange, an expert in elections born and raised in New York City, has spent over a decade in left-leaning activism and has become a kind of local celebrity recently for his deep dives into municipal statistics and voter surveys.

He released his extremely precise forecast map – which correctly forecast that the progressive candidate was victorious while missing Andrew Cuomo’s solid showing – on his Substack, his platform. Lange possesses a talent for witty coinages. He pointed out, for instance, the split between the progressive stronghold, stretching from one neighborhood to another area to Astoria, where he predicted (correctly) that Mamdani would win by huge margins, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. In those areas, “the Free Press and financial newspapers outrank the New York Times” in audience and the majority of electors leaned toward Cuomo, who ran as a conservative-courting independent.

Voting Day Trends and Surprises

How was your election night?

It was necessary since they were dropping approximately 200K ballots into the system every few minutes! I was actually a little nervous at the beginning: The candidate led the initial ballots by a dozen percentage points, but came two big batches of ballots that came in later and the advantage dropped from 12 to 8%. I was worried.

Understand, there was a world in which election day turned out kind of poorly for Mamdani, where the opponent was going to end up essentially doubling his votes from the earlier contest. But Mamdani added half a million supporters to his primary coalition, and this was critical why he won. He went out and massively expanded his base from the primary.

Expanding Support

How did the mayor-elect get those extra votes from?

He assembled the coalition that progressives always wanted to build: diverse racially, youthful, it’s renters and individuals facing cost pressures. He improved considerably with minority communities, everyday New Yorkers, relative to the primary. Plus he boosted his base of left-leaning activists, young leftists, and Muslims and south Asians. Victory required without making those significant inroads.

He created the coalition that the left always wanted to build: diverse, young, tenants and people squeezed by affordability

There were also some Trump/Mamdani voters – is this significant?

It’s definitely a real thing, limited to Hispanic laborers, south Asians and Muslims. Voters in immigrant strongholds that went for Trump previously went for Zohran now. But I wouldn’t say he was gaining Caucasian laborers and Maga voters.

Turnout and Effects

A major development of the election was the record turnout. Who benefited?

Each candidate. Turnout was much greater than anticipated. I thought it could go over two million, but it reached 2.3 million – that is a huge number of participants. There was a substantial anti-Mamdani block, energized, but the Mamdani base was also motivated, and that was enough to win.

You forecasted he’d get over 50% of the vote. Is he likely for that?

Right now you would say he’s favored to get over 50%. He has just over 50% but remain probably 200K ballots uncounted at that time. So I don’t think certain, but I believe probable, and I wish he achieves it so then none can claim Sliwa was a spoiler.

Republican Collapse

Curtis Sliwa, the conservative contender, was another surprise. His support plummeted.

He lost any district in any area. Not even one neighborhood in Staten Island, similar to an highly conservative neighborhood. That really was unexpected. The independent kept Caucasian districts, affluent zones and very religiously Jewish areas, and plus gained all of these Republicans on the island who had a high participation. I believe occurred significant strategic balloting by the Republicans. They were doing it before the former president tweeted his support for the candidate, but it assisted. It might have changed the outcome if the winning alliance failed to expand.

The “Commie Corridor”

What about your much mentioned left-wing base – did backing for Mamdani dominant in those parts of the boroughs?

I think existed a little dilution of the commie corridor in some areas like Astoria or Greenpoint that have more older white ethnic folks. There, instance, the property owners and residents supported the independent. Thus there existed a little resistance. But overall, largely the leftist base is another huge reason why Zohran won – he scored between 77% and 83% in specific neighborhoods.

Community Support

In the lead-up to the election we reported on whether the candidate was making inroads with Jewish New Yorkers. Is there any suggestion that he succeeded?

There are areas with a lot of non-religious and left-inclined voters – such as specific locales – where he performed strongly. But in the wealthy Jewish communities such as the Manhattan area, his Middle East stance definitely mattered there. Similarly in the more middle-class Jewish areas including Queens neighborhoods, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they all leaned the independent. Plus, there are Jewish immigrants from Eastern Europe in southern Brooklyn, they were strongly Cuomo. So I don’t know if existed major surprises here, but he retained more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and even parts of the Upper West Side by big margins.

Long-Term Significance

Did Mamdani redefine what the city represents in politics? Will commie corridor become a launch pad for progressive contenders?

Absolutely, it’s no coincidence that key figures from progressives hail from a few areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I believe that there will be additional examples – people will come from these areas to be elevated nationally.

However I think that each urban center in the US could develop similar progressive hubs. Cities are the epicenters of leftwing power in the nation – since they’re young, tenancy is common and they are places where individuals struggle by the inequalities we face.